New England Patriots

This post is a direct copy of one I made on an Eagles site I frequent, so if some language seems out of whack, it's because the original intended audience was a football bulletin board

Standard disclaimer applies. Stats only show part of the game and are by their nature selective. However, they can give some insight if the numbers are handled carefully. I count more plays than the NFL because I count plays results nullified by penalties if the penalty has no effect on the result (1 yard run converts a third down, but defensive holding wipes the play away, for example). Not perfect, but since I use an entire season’s stats and plays, it dulls any significant spikes, I think. Don’t like it? Be my guest to do better.

Okay, so since this is the Super Bowl I decided to go all out. I scripted out the first fifteen plays for each game of the season, including this year’s playoffs and the playoff run during their last Super Bowl. I broke down the Patriots on first down, second and long situations (7+ yards), third down conversions, rushing distribution, punt coverage, and other general stats.

First 15 Plays

The Patriots, as far as I know, don’t script their first 15 plays. So, following the deconstructive nature in a certain controversial novel, I figure they may be ripe for pattern recognition. (In the book, a guy has sex at random places, but an observer notes his pattern follows the chaos theory and V-2 rockets subsequently falls where he last had “relations.” In doing so, he actually is a free actor and the universe, of all things, is more doomed to follow his pattern. I regress [for Smiff fans]).

As a whole, the Pats have a 55/45 pass/run mix. Not surprisingly, 63% of their passes and 35% of their total plays are passes to WRs. They also rarely give up sacks in the first 15 plays. 10 sacks out of well over 300 plays (172 pass plays). They may not script their plays, but they sure have them down pat. There are some patterns worth noting. For one, they almost always pass to WRs on the third play. This may likely be a result of the third down situation. Would make sense.

Regardless, what’s really interesting is that their yardage drops off significantly after the first ten or so plays. They average 6 yards per play for the first nine plays every game. The next six (and presumably the following ones)? They average four yards per play. This might not seem like a lot by itself. However, of the ten sacks they gave up in the first 15 plays, 6 came during plays 10-15. I realize the sample is too small to make any definitive declaration regarding the sacks. The first six plays per game, they average about seven yards per play. Plays 10-15, they average four. Take their best shot (first ten plays or so) and you see a dropoff in yards gained per play. The Patriots also set a record of some type this year by scoring first in X number of games. They clearly come out and execute in their first series. After that, it looks like the gameplan become more fluid and less successful.

Finally, Brady has thrown more than double the INTs for passes 11-20, opposed to his first ten throws. Same raw numbers for passes, too, though his yards per attempt dips by a yard and a half. What am I saying? I’m saying something happens after the first ten or so plays and before halftime and the Eagles can capitalize. The second quarter is the time for the Eagles D to strike and force three and outs.

Patriots Running Game

When running during the first 15 plays, they ran 22% to the right, 47% to the middle and 31% to the left. This pattern holds true for their overall run distribution. Dillon pounds the ball between the tackles 47% of the time (4.1 ypc). When they do bounce him to the outside, it is more likely to the left (33% of his runs). What’s odd is that he’s very successful to the outside, average a yard more per carry to the left (5.1) and a yard a half more to the right (5.7). Is this due to Dillon or the OL play? Well, non-Dillon runners (WRs end arounds, QB sneaks, Faulk, Pass) average about 3.6 yards per carry. There’s also no significant increase to the outside. Without Dillon, their run game becomes very pedestrian. Dillon was a pretty steady runner, rarely having a bad game. I think he set a record for consecutive 100 yard games for the Pats, too.

One more thing. The Patriots have a heavy package using DL as eligible players. Klecko checked in a lot of times through the season but is now on IR. Seymour checked in, but is coming back from injury. Would he see time? Doubtful. Maybe Hochstein checks in. If he does, I’d fully expect run, run, run.

First Down Yardage

When the Patriots run on first down, they gain 0-3 yards approximately 50% of the time (includes negative yards, a stat the Eagles defense led the league in). Same with the pass (including sacks). Clearly, this puts the Pats in 2nd and long nearly half the time. More on this later.

One interesting observation is the Pats really focused on the run in the last half of the season and the playoffs. They went from rushing on first down 54% of the time to rushing 63% of the time. The trend can actually be traced back to the Jets and Steelers games. Brady was sacked 7 times and, more importantly, lost the Steelers game. I think Belichick adjusted the playcalling to slow down the pass rush and buy Brady more time early in the game. There’s every reason to believe he will emphasize the run on first down during the Super Bowl.

On first down alone, Brady throws for 59%, 8 yards per pass, and has had 24 20+ yard completions on first down. Contrast that with second down. YPA drops over a yard, big plays drops to 11, and his completion % jumps. His QB rating is much better on second down because he got a lot of his TDs on second down. It looks as though Belichick shortens the passing game on second down to get some yards to make third down manageable. Not earth-shattering, but worth noting.

2nd and Long (7+ Yards)

When faced with second and long, most teams look to shorten the yardage so third down in manageable. The Pats go more for the throat, so to speak. They pass 70% of the time. Of those passes, 60% go to WRs, 18% to TEs, and 16% to RBs. Overall (run plays included), they pass to WRs 42% of the time (TEs 12.5%, RBs 11%). They rarely run, but if they do, the go up the gut (18% overall and 59% of run plays). Almost a quarter (10 of 45) of their sacks came in 2nd and long situations. Following on the last section, I’d bank on short, high completion passes to WRs on second and long.

How often will the Patriots be in this situation? The Patriots average 12 2nd and long situations per game. They average 65 plays per game and 18% of their plays are 2nd and long. I didn’t run other teams to see if this is out of the ordinary, but it sure seems like a high proportion.

To blitz or not to blitz? When defenses blitz, Brady’s QB efficiency drops nearly 20 points. He goes from (non-blitz) 63.8%, 21 TD, 8 INT, 99.2 rating to 55.1%, 7 TD, 6 INT, 80.3 rating (blitz stats from espn.com). There’s no appreciable difference in yards per attempt or completion, either. Situations will dictate, of course, but this looks like an ideal time to send an extra man.

Third Down

The Patriots, propelled by a strong running game, are very effective in third and short situations (3 yards or less). They convert 63% of short yard plays overall and 76% when they run. Considering they run the ball very well, I expected to see a heavier run to pass distribution. They ran more, but not by a super wide margin. Part of this comes from the packages. In the play-by-play, I saw the RB Pass (his name) in on third down, as well as Faulk. Dillon’s not a bad receiver (1,600 yards receiving in his career), so it probably has more to do with keeping the entire playbook open on third down.

Third and long they rarely run for it and for good reason – they rarely convert it by running (four times all season). They do fairly well on third and long overall (39%). As the season wore on, they didn’t do as well on third and long. Their conversion dropped from 43% to 34%. Factor in one element, though. Division rivals were far more effective in stopping conversion than non-division foes (32% vs. 41%).

Punt Coverage

The Patriots punt coverage team has taken some heat from the press. From numbers, it’s impossible to say what the deal is. They allow about 12 yards per return (34 total returns – including playoffs). Nine times this season, they’ve allowed an average of ten yards or more on punt returns. Four times, they’ve allowed punt returns of 20+ yards, two of those were 70+ yard returns. There is no difference between home and away games in return yardage, though Miller nets about three more yards per punt on the road (31 yards net).

When Westbrook had punt return duty last year, he had 20 returns. Two returns went for TDs and he averaged 15 yards per return. Considering the Eagles punt return team has lacked a punch, they may be tempted to use Westbrook to exploit the coverage mismatch. Wynn gets about 10 yards per return, so if they stick with him they should get that amount of yards. He just may not hit a homerun like Westbrook can.

On the flip side, the Eagles allow 6.5 yards per return and the Patriots average 5.8 yards per return (long 23 yards). The Eagles hold a special teams coverage/return edge.

QBs Facing the Patriots

There has been some discussion around the league regarding the quality of the QBs who played against the Patriots. Looking over the QBs and punching in the numbers, there is no appreciable statistical difference between the QBs the Eagles faced and the QBs the Patriots faced. Of course, there are individual situations that aren’t factored in. When the Pats faced the Ravens, Jamal Lewis didn’t play. When they played the Browns, Suggs didn’t play. This isn’t meant to knock the Pats, just to point out that there are situations behind the numbers that can’t be easily reflected. Similar situations happened with the Eagles.

So, I don’t think they faced QBs of lesser quality. The Pats haven’t faced a really mobile QB this season, but have in the past. The most mobile they faced this year might have been Boller. On the flip side, the Eagles have faced QBs that react well to blitzes (Culpepper, Vick, maybe Garcia). I don’t think there’s an appreciable difference here. They throw for about the same amount of yards per game for the same TD and INT rate.

The passing yards per game for the second half of the season remained somewhat steady and a little over 220 yards per game. The Patriots run defense, however, really stepped up. They dropped the average yards per game by about 40 yards per game. Granted, they faced less talent.

Summary

Historically, the Pats offense will sputter a bit (not stall) after the first ten plays and may struggle a bit in the second quarter.
The Pats will emphasize run on first down.
If Hochstein checks in as eligible, I expect the Eagles to go DT heavy, as they did in the GB game to counter the run.
The Pats will be in second and long about 12 times in the Super Bowl and will pass their way out of it, more likely to the WRs on short routes – not necessarily looking to convert the down.
The Eagles can be successful if they blitz and Brady’s efficiency drops significantly when blitzed.
The Patriots third and long conversion took a hit later in the season and in the playoffs.
The Eagles hold a distinct edge in the punting game.
There is no appreciable difference between the QBs the Pats faced and the ones the Eagles faced.

Atlanta Falcons

Excuse me if some of the wording leaves you a bit confused. It's a repost from another site (700level.com)

The Atlanta Falcons feature a very effective running game. Their passing game is suspect, at best. When your leading receiver is your TE, you rarely stretch the field. It also indicates your QB can’t look downfield or doesn’t give deep routes time to develop. However, they boast one of the strongest running games in the NFL, great punt return work, and a solid front seven on defense.

On first downs, the Falcons started the season with a more run focused attack and moved to one with more passes on first down. For every five first down pass plays during the first part of the season, the Falcons ran 11 times. Over 2:1. Toward the end of the season, they increased their pass ratio on first down (presumably to mix it up and keep defenses honest). In the last nine games, for every five first down pass plays the Falcons run 7 times. They balanced their first down playcalling, though still lean on their strength.

What’s been the effect? Their average gain per run remained pretty much the same. When running, they typically gain 0-3 yards on first down about 52-55% of the time. They gain 4-6 about 22% and 7+ about 23%. When passing, however, they’ve gone sharply south. In the first eight, they gained 0-3 (includes incomplete passes, sacks, and catches for loss) 39% of the time and gained 7+ yards a whopping 50% of the time. In the last nine games, they gain 0-3 yards 64% of the time and 7+ has dropped to 29%. Vick is throwing more incompletions on first down and either doesn’t stretch the field or in unsuccessful in stretching the field on first down.

Here’s the odd part. Even though they’re less successful in gaining yardage on first down, their third down completion % jumped during the second half of the season. They went from dismal rates (keep in mind, I count plays wiped from the books by certain penalties away from the play) averaging 27% to a very respectable rate in the second half of the season – 45%. The Falcons offense became more efficient as the year went on and is firing on almost all cylinders.

The running game has two components – the RBs and Vick. For the season and playoffs, the Falcons run 30% to the left, 40% to the middle and 30% to the right. They gain marginally more yards to the left than the right (36% of the total rushing yards gained running to the left and 27% to the right). Seems pretty balanced, no?

No.

Separating Vick’s designed runs and scrambles from the mix, the Falcons run an imbalanced running attack. The RBs run far more heavily to the middle (defined as middle or off guard runs) and more heavily to the right of the line (defined as tackle or end runs). 50% of the RB runs go up the gut, 32% (or so) go to the right and about 17% go to the left. The yardage gained is almost directly proportional, as well. They also almost never pass when Duckett is in the backfield. He doesn’t have the hands and probably isn’t as good at pass blocking.

Vick, on the other hand, runs to the left close to 50% of the time. Not surprising, considering he’s left handed and his eyes more easily see that side of the field. He runs the middle about 33% of the time and to the right approx 17% of the time. What does this mean? Well, a Buc fan friend of mine stated earlier this week the Bucs keep containment on the left side of the line and it greatly hampers Vick’s game. In addition to cutting lanes of escape, he contends if also has the psychological effect of a “trap.”

Considering the Eagles faced another strong running team (Packers) and were incredibly effective, I’ll wager we will see Walker at RDE every now and then to provide a wall to the left of Vick. Consider: Hollis Thomas made his return and Johnson now has the full DT rotation. He can spare Walker to the end and plug Thomas in the middle. I wouldn’t expect this the entire game, but I would expect it during pass plays. In fact, Douglas may get more reps since he may have more lower leg strength than Burgess to hold the tackle in position.

Duckett runs almost exclusively between the tackles and is not successful bouncing to the outside. He goes from six yards per carry up the guy to 3 yards per carry to the outside. Dunn runs up the middle with equal success to the outside, though he has about as many yards from middle runs as the outside runs combined. This team will try to dominate the inside of the line. So, Johnson will have to balance the need to wall off Vick to the left with keeping DTs fresh. Thankfully, the Eagles have very good depth at DL (unlike last year).

Regarding the shotgun formation. The Falcons use it regularly and run from it more frequently than you think. More often than not, it’s a run from Dunn (Duckett will never be in for shotgun). They do have the direct snap to Dunn in their playbook. The run from shotgun is very effective. From my memory, they gained at least five yards or more each time they ran from shotgun. I fully expect to see the formation and at least two runs from it, very likely including the direct snap to Dunn.

Punt Return

Much has been made of Rossum’s ability on punt return and for good reason. He rarely has “bad” days on return duty. Of course, his kick returns are pedestrian. I posted the overview from the last meeting in 2002 and, funny enough, almost nothing has changed:

Rossum is their primary return man. We remember him as the guy that could never break the long one for a TD. He’s been a very good punt returner (12 yards per return, with no long one to throw the average), but is a lackluster kick returner. He averages 22 yards per kick return, despite having a long one for a TD (91 yards).

This year, Rossum averages 12.4 yards per punt return and 21.6 yards per kick return. The more things change…

I count 11 punt returns of 20+ yards and three 50+ yard returns. There is some reason for optimism, though I really can’t gauge the amount. He’s far more successful in domes than in open air. In fact, his average punt return drops from 18 (dome) to 11 yards per return. Without the long run against the Chiefs for a TD (unfair to remove, truth be told), his average drops to seven yards per return. The TD run counts, though, because it shows he can take it the distance under the circumstance.

The net average for Eagles punt is a fairly steady 35-36 yards per punt, home and away. Their coverage units do about the same home as away, but both are good. The coverage team allows about 6 yards per return. When playing against tough defenses (punting more), the coverage team doesn’t slacken. BAL, PIT, and DAL (1st), the Eagles punted 16 times and gave up 5.4 yards per return. They’ve also faced some quality return men (DET- Drummond). The coverage unit should be up to the task and the bad weather should be in their favor if they maintain discipline.

If I can get to it, I’ll do some Altanta defense workups. Just not sure if I can get it squeezed in.

Minnesota Vikings

From time to time, I create statistical breakdowns for the Eagles site I visit (www.700level.com). I posted this one already, but for those that don't go to it, I thought I'd post it here. Up next will be the Atlanta Falcons Overview.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

For those unfamiliar with how I do this, I’ll give a brief overview. Skip ahead if you understand. I take the play-by-play on nfl.com as well as other official stats and I look for trends that may be noteworthy. Typically, I like to look at third down conversion rates. Teams in the playoffs are usually good in 3rd down (Vikes lead the league). When breaking down the plays, I throw out certain plays if there’s a holding penalty and maybe include others, even if there’s a defensive penalty that wipes it out (depending). It’s not perfect, but you’ll get your money’s worth.

Vikings Offense

It’s not surprise to say Culpepper and Moss are crucial to the success of the Vikings offense. In games Randy Moss played most of the time, the Vikes averaged 80 more passing yards (318 to 235), though the scoring was kept up. There wasn’t a dramatic increase in rushing during those games (TEN, NYG, @IND, @GB, DET). We all expect Randy to play and I also think the consensus is he’s faking the severity of his ankle injury.

Overall, their offense has lacked a running game. Seems hard to believe considering the depth at RB, but they’ve only had two 100 yard rushing games by RBs (@NO, TEN). In contrast, they have seven games with at least one 100 yard receiver.

Culpepper takes the game on his shoulders when on the road. This year, he averages eight more attempts and six more completions in other stadiums (irrespective of dome, grass). He also averages approximately 70 more yards passing in those games and one more TD. He doesn’t rush much more than normal, but he does have a tendency to take off.

This isn’t just a quirk. Looking at last year’s numbers (after he returned from injury), we see an almost identical situation. Nine more attempts per game, seven more completions, for 60 more yards.

This isn’t earthshattering at all. I realize it. Expect about 35-40 passes, 65%+, and 300 yards. The TDs, though, are the question that only the defense can answer. Count on this, though. I highly doubt they will try to establish the run. Their RBs will carry the ball about 15-20 times tops. They lost a starting tackle and their best blocking TE/FB to IR. I doubt they break 100 total yards rushing.

Viking Defense

Terrible doesn’t begin to describe it. They gave up seven more TDs than the league average (46/39) and two more FGs than average (24/22). To contrast, the Eagles gave up 30 TDs (one was technically a INT, but is still charged against the defense) and 17 FGs. They put other teams in scoring position more than 70 times throughout the season (Eagles 47+), factoring in missed FGs.

Their defense has been run over badly (and to think, we worry about the Eagles run D). they gave up 100 yards to single RBs eight times this season. In fairness, the RBs weren’t scrubs (Green, Alexander, Taylor, K. Jones [Go Hokies!], Barber, T. Jones). They’ve also allowed 100 yard WR five times (in three games, multiple receivers got 100).

Why are they so terrible? Because they can’t get off the field. Their third down conversion rate (allowed) is one of the highest in the league. To compound matters, they played eight games against teams ranked in the bottom eight of the NFL in offensive 3rd down conversion. They have a terrible rating and they played eight games against terrible 3rd down offenses (conversion rates ranging from 25-34%).

I looked at the 3rd down defense against division and non-division opponents to see if there was a difference. Nothing really stood out. They allowed 3rd down conversions 45% of the time (keep in mind, I count certain plays NFL official records threw out due to penalties). They were marginally worse on the road (42 vs. 47% allowed). What did standout was they’re getting worse.

In the first eight games (mid-season), they had the following rates:

Third and short (3 and less)
Passes converted 62% of the time
Runs converted 67% of the time
Third and long (4+)
Passes converted 34% of the time
Runs converted 17% of the time (Runs on 3rd and long were small enough in number that they didn’t really skew results)

In the last nine games (including GB playoff game):
Third and short (3 and less)
Passes converted 75% of the time
Runs converted 75% of the time
Third and long (4+)
Passes converted 41% of the time
Runs converted 60% of the time

Overall? First eight: 39% Last nine? 49%

Egads. Is it any wonder they give up 22 first downs per game?

Prediction? The Eagles convert 40% of their 3rd downs.

Spending

Here are some somewhat dated figures:

Spending for 1999-2000

By far, the greatest part of education revenues came from nonfederal sources (state, intermediate, and local governments), which together provided about $346 billion, or 92.7 percent of all revenues. The federal government contribution to education revenues made up the remaining $27 billion. The relative contributions from these levels of government can be expressed as portions of the typical education dollar. For school year 1999–2000, local and intermediate sources made up 43 cents of every dollar in revenue, state revenues comprised 50 cents, and the remaining 7 cents came from federal sources.

I recently reviewed the numbers for another discussion and the %s seem to hold consistant. The feds give a little less than 8% toward a public educated child's tuition.

Cheacking out the National Education Association, I found (link in pdf):

The average PA teacher salary is $52,200. Better not hear another peep about teachers underpaid at $50,000 for eight months of work. Spare me the "they work on lesson plans during the summer." Anyone who knows teachers (or human nature), knows that's bunk.

PA also spend an average of $8,609 per student. Federal share approx $688. Why folks look to presidents to fix national education problems is beyond me. If 92% of your money came from two sources and 8% came from a third, how much attention would you give #3?

Voucher Reform

Next topic.

I promised some folks a couple months ago that I'd tackle (as best I can) the coucher issue.

I think I can make a reasonable plan. Now, this doesn't mean I could get it through the unions. I'm not naive.

OBJECTIVES

Vouchers available to, at a minimum, parent of children in "failing" schools.
Money spent per child average should be the same or perhaps boosted in some way.
Schools losing the student must have some incentive to agree and/or approve.

Definitions

The definitions may change as I go and do more research.

Failing: A school fails if the students (not including special needs children) cannot meet a national standard on a standardized test.