Minnesota Vikings

From time to time, I create statistical breakdowns for the Eagles site I visit (www.700level.com). I posted this one already, but for those that don't go to it, I thought I'd post it here. Up next will be the Atlanta Falcons Overview.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

For those unfamiliar with how I do this, I’ll give a brief overview. Skip ahead if you understand. I take the play-by-play on nfl.com as well as other official stats and I look for trends that may be noteworthy. Typically, I like to look at third down conversion rates. Teams in the playoffs are usually good in 3rd down (Vikes lead the league). When breaking down the plays, I throw out certain plays if there’s a holding penalty and maybe include others, even if there’s a defensive penalty that wipes it out (depending). It’s not perfect, but you’ll get your money’s worth.

Vikings Offense

It’s not surprise to say Culpepper and Moss are crucial to the success of the Vikings offense. In games Randy Moss played most of the time, the Vikes averaged 80 more passing yards (318 to 235), though the scoring was kept up. There wasn’t a dramatic increase in rushing during those games (TEN, NYG, @IND, @GB, DET). We all expect Randy to play and I also think the consensus is he’s faking the severity of his ankle injury.

Overall, their offense has lacked a running game. Seems hard to believe considering the depth at RB, but they’ve only had two 100 yard rushing games by RBs (@NO, TEN). In contrast, they have seven games with at least one 100 yard receiver.

Culpepper takes the game on his shoulders when on the road. This year, he averages eight more attempts and six more completions in other stadiums (irrespective of dome, grass). He also averages approximately 70 more yards passing in those games and one more TD. He doesn’t rush much more than normal, but he does have a tendency to take off.

This isn’t just a quirk. Looking at last year’s numbers (after he returned from injury), we see an almost identical situation. Nine more attempts per game, seven more completions, for 60 more yards.

This isn’t earthshattering at all. I realize it. Expect about 35-40 passes, 65%+, and 300 yards. The TDs, though, are the question that only the defense can answer. Count on this, though. I highly doubt they will try to establish the run. Their RBs will carry the ball about 15-20 times tops. They lost a starting tackle and their best blocking TE/FB to IR. I doubt they break 100 total yards rushing.

Viking Defense

Terrible doesn’t begin to describe it. They gave up seven more TDs than the league average (46/39) and two more FGs than average (24/22). To contrast, the Eagles gave up 30 TDs (one was technically a INT, but is still charged against the defense) and 17 FGs. They put other teams in scoring position more than 70 times throughout the season (Eagles 47+), factoring in missed FGs.

Their defense has been run over badly (and to think, we worry about the Eagles run D). they gave up 100 yards to single RBs eight times this season. In fairness, the RBs weren’t scrubs (Green, Alexander, Taylor, K. Jones [Go Hokies!], Barber, T. Jones). They’ve also allowed 100 yard WR five times (in three games, multiple receivers got 100).

Why are they so terrible? Because they can’t get off the field. Their third down conversion rate (allowed) is one of the highest in the league. To compound matters, they played eight games against teams ranked in the bottom eight of the NFL in offensive 3rd down conversion. They have a terrible rating and they played eight games against terrible 3rd down offenses (conversion rates ranging from 25-34%).

I looked at the 3rd down defense against division and non-division opponents to see if there was a difference. Nothing really stood out. They allowed 3rd down conversions 45% of the time (keep in mind, I count certain plays NFL official records threw out due to penalties). They were marginally worse on the road (42 vs. 47% allowed). What did standout was they’re getting worse.

In the first eight games (mid-season), they had the following rates:

Third and short (3 and less)
Passes converted 62% of the time
Runs converted 67% of the time
Third and long (4+)
Passes converted 34% of the time
Runs converted 17% of the time (Runs on 3rd and long were small enough in number that they didn’t really skew results)

In the last nine games (including GB playoff game):
Third and short (3 and less)
Passes converted 75% of the time
Runs converted 75% of the time
Third and long (4+)
Passes converted 41% of the time
Runs converted 60% of the time

Overall? First eight: 39% Last nine? 49%

Egads. Is it any wonder they give up 22 first downs per game?

Prediction? The Eagles convert 40% of their 3rd downs.