Atlanta Falcons

Excuse me if some of the wording leaves you a bit confused. It's a repost from another site (700level.com)

The Atlanta Falcons feature a very effective running game. Their passing game is suspect, at best. When your leading receiver is your TE, you rarely stretch the field. It also indicates your QB can’t look downfield or doesn’t give deep routes time to develop. However, they boast one of the strongest running games in the NFL, great punt return work, and a solid front seven on defense.

On first downs, the Falcons started the season with a more run focused attack and moved to one with more passes on first down. For every five first down pass plays during the first part of the season, the Falcons ran 11 times. Over 2:1. Toward the end of the season, they increased their pass ratio on first down (presumably to mix it up and keep defenses honest). In the last nine games, for every five first down pass plays the Falcons run 7 times. They balanced their first down playcalling, though still lean on their strength.

What’s been the effect? Their average gain per run remained pretty much the same. When running, they typically gain 0-3 yards on first down about 52-55% of the time. They gain 4-6 about 22% and 7+ about 23%. When passing, however, they’ve gone sharply south. In the first eight, they gained 0-3 (includes incomplete passes, sacks, and catches for loss) 39% of the time and gained 7+ yards a whopping 50% of the time. In the last nine games, they gain 0-3 yards 64% of the time and 7+ has dropped to 29%. Vick is throwing more incompletions on first down and either doesn’t stretch the field or in unsuccessful in stretching the field on first down.

Here’s the odd part. Even though they’re less successful in gaining yardage on first down, their third down completion % jumped during the second half of the season. They went from dismal rates (keep in mind, I count plays wiped from the books by certain penalties away from the play) averaging 27% to a very respectable rate in the second half of the season – 45%. The Falcons offense became more efficient as the year went on and is firing on almost all cylinders.

The running game has two components – the RBs and Vick. For the season and playoffs, the Falcons run 30% to the left, 40% to the middle and 30% to the right. They gain marginally more yards to the left than the right (36% of the total rushing yards gained running to the left and 27% to the right). Seems pretty balanced, no?

No.

Separating Vick’s designed runs and scrambles from the mix, the Falcons run an imbalanced running attack. The RBs run far more heavily to the middle (defined as middle or off guard runs) and more heavily to the right of the line (defined as tackle or end runs). 50% of the RB runs go up the gut, 32% (or so) go to the right and about 17% go to the left. The yardage gained is almost directly proportional, as well. They also almost never pass when Duckett is in the backfield. He doesn’t have the hands and probably isn’t as good at pass blocking.

Vick, on the other hand, runs to the left close to 50% of the time. Not surprising, considering he’s left handed and his eyes more easily see that side of the field. He runs the middle about 33% of the time and to the right approx 17% of the time. What does this mean? Well, a Buc fan friend of mine stated earlier this week the Bucs keep containment on the left side of the line and it greatly hampers Vick’s game. In addition to cutting lanes of escape, he contends if also has the psychological effect of a “trap.”

Considering the Eagles faced another strong running team (Packers) and were incredibly effective, I’ll wager we will see Walker at RDE every now and then to provide a wall to the left of Vick. Consider: Hollis Thomas made his return and Johnson now has the full DT rotation. He can spare Walker to the end and plug Thomas in the middle. I wouldn’t expect this the entire game, but I would expect it during pass plays. In fact, Douglas may get more reps since he may have more lower leg strength than Burgess to hold the tackle in position.

Duckett runs almost exclusively between the tackles and is not successful bouncing to the outside. He goes from six yards per carry up the guy to 3 yards per carry to the outside. Dunn runs up the middle with equal success to the outside, though he has about as many yards from middle runs as the outside runs combined. This team will try to dominate the inside of the line. So, Johnson will have to balance the need to wall off Vick to the left with keeping DTs fresh. Thankfully, the Eagles have very good depth at DL (unlike last year).

Regarding the shotgun formation. The Falcons use it regularly and run from it more frequently than you think. More often than not, it’s a run from Dunn (Duckett will never be in for shotgun). They do have the direct snap to Dunn in their playbook. The run from shotgun is very effective. From my memory, they gained at least five yards or more each time they ran from shotgun. I fully expect to see the formation and at least two runs from it, very likely including the direct snap to Dunn.

Punt Return

Much has been made of Rossum’s ability on punt return and for good reason. He rarely has “bad” days on return duty. Of course, his kick returns are pedestrian. I posted the overview from the last meeting in 2002 and, funny enough, almost nothing has changed:

Rossum is their primary return man. We remember him as the guy that could never break the long one for a TD. He’s been a very good punt returner (12 yards per return, with no long one to throw the average), but is a lackluster kick returner. He averages 22 yards per kick return, despite having a long one for a TD (91 yards).

This year, Rossum averages 12.4 yards per punt return and 21.6 yards per kick return. The more things change…

I count 11 punt returns of 20+ yards and three 50+ yard returns. There is some reason for optimism, though I really can’t gauge the amount. He’s far more successful in domes than in open air. In fact, his average punt return drops from 18 (dome) to 11 yards per return. Without the long run against the Chiefs for a TD (unfair to remove, truth be told), his average drops to seven yards per return. The TD run counts, though, because it shows he can take it the distance under the circumstance.

The net average for Eagles punt is a fairly steady 35-36 yards per punt, home and away. Their coverage units do about the same home as away, but both are good. The coverage team allows about 6 yards per return. When playing against tough defenses (punting more), the coverage team doesn’t slacken. BAL, PIT, and DAL (1st), the Eagles punted 16 times and gave up 5.4 yards per return. They’ve also faced some quality return men (DET- Drummond). The coverage unit should be up to the task and the bad weather should be in their favor if they maintain discipline.

If I can get to it, I’ll do some Altanta defense workups. Just not sure if I can get it squeezed in.

Minnesota Vikings

From time to time, I create statistical breakdowns for the Eagles site I visit (www.700level.com). I posted this one already, but for those that don't go to it, I thought I'd post it here. Up next will be the Atlanta Falcons Overview.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

For those unfamiliar with how I do this, I’ll give a brief overview. Skip ahead if you understand. I take the play-by-play on nfl.com as well as other official stats and I look for trends that may be noteworthy. Typically, I like to look at third down conversion rates. Teams in the playoffs are usually good in 3rd down (Vikes lead the league). When breaking down the plays, I throw out certain plays if there’s a holding penalty and maybe include others, even if there’s a defensive penalty that wipes it out (depending). It’s not perfect, but you’ll get your money’s worth.

Vikings Offense

It’s not surprise to say Culpepper and Moss are crucial to the success of the Vikings offense. In games Randy Moss played most of the time, the Vikes averaged 80 more passing yards (318 to 235), though the scoring was kept up. There wasn’t a dramatic increase in rushing during those games (TEN, NYG, @IND, @GB, DET). We all expect Randy to play and I also think the consensus is he’s faking the severity of his ankle injury.

Overall, their offense has lacked a running game. Seems hard to believe considering the depth at RB, but they’ve only had two 100 yard rushing games by RBs (@NO, TEN). In contrast, they have seven games with at least one 100 yard receiver.

Culpepper takes the game on his shoulders when on the road. This year, he averages eight more attempts and six more completions in other stadiums (irrespective of dome, grass). He also averages approximately 70 more yards passing in those games and one more TD. He doesn’t rush much more than normal, but he does have a tendency to take off.

This isn’t just a quirk. Looking at last year’s numbers (after he returned from injury), we see an almost identical situation. Nine more attempts per game, seven more completions, for 60 more yards.

This isn’t earthshattering at all. I realize it. Expect about 35-40 passes, 65%+, and 300 yards. The TDs, though, are the question that only the defense can answer. Count on this, though. I highly doubt they will try to establish the run. Their RBs will carry the ball about 15-20 times tops. They lost a starting tackle and their best blocking TE/FB to IR. I doubt they break 100 total yards rushing.

Viking Defense

Terrible doesn’t begin to describe it. They gave up seven more TDs than the league average (46/39) and two more FGs than average (24/22). To contrast, the Eagles gave up 30 TDs (one was technically a INT, but is still charged against the defense) and 17 FGs. They put other teams in scoring position more than 70 times throughout the season (Eagles 47+), factoring in missed FGs.

Their defense has been run over badly (and to think, we worry about the Eagles run D). they gave up 100 yards to single RBs eight times this season. In fairness, the RBs weren’t scrubs (Green, Alexander, Taylor, K. Jones [Go Hokies!], Barber, T. Jones). They’ve also allowed 100 yard WR five times (in three games, multiple receivers got 100).

Why are they so terrible? Because they can’t get off the field. Their third down conversion rate (allowed) is one of the highest in the league. To compound matters, they played eight games against teams ranked in the bottom eight of the NFL in offensive 3rd down conversion. They have a terrible rating and they played eight games against terrible 3rd down offenses (conversion rates ranging from 25-34%).

I looked at the 3rd down defense against division and non-division opponents to see if there was a difference. Nothing really stood out. They allowed 3rd down conversions 45% of the time (keep in mind, I count certain plays NFL official records threw out due to penalties). They were marginally worse on the road (42 vs. 47% allowed). What did standout was they’re getting worse.

In the first eight games (mid-season), they had the following rates:

Third and short (3 and less)
Passes converted 62% of the time
Runs converted 67% of the time
Third and long (4+)
Passes converted 34% of the time
Runs converted 17% of the time (Runs on 3rd and long were small enough in number that they didn’t really skew results)

In the last nine games (including GB playoff game):
Third and short (3 and less)
Passes converted 75% of the time
Runs converted 75% of the time
Third and long (4+)
Passes converted 41% of the time
Runs converted 60% of the time

Overall? First eight: 39% Last nine? 49%

Egads. Is it any wonder they give up 22 first downs per game?

Prediction? The Eagles convert 40% of their 3rd downs.

Spending

Here are some somewhat dated figures:

Spending for 1999-2000

By far, the greatest part of education revenues came from nonfederal sources (state, intermediate, and local governments), which together provided about $346 billion, or 92.7 percent of all revenues. The federal government contribution to education revenues made up the remaining $27 billion. The relative contributions from these levels of government can be expressed as portions of the typical education dollar. For school year 1999–2000, local and intermediate sources made up 43 cents of every dollar in revenue, state revenues comprised 50 cents, and the remaining 7 cents came from federal sources.

I recently reviewed the numbers for another discussion and the %s seem to hold consistant. The feds give a little less than 8% toward a public educated child's tuition.

Cheacking out the National Education Association, I found (link in pdf):

The average PA teacher salary is $52,200. Better not hear another peep about teachers underpaid at $50,000 for eight months of work. Spare me the "they work on lesson plans during the summer." Anyone who knows teachers (or human nature), knows that's bunk.

PA also spend an average of $8,609 per student. Federal share approx $688. Why folks look to presidents to fix national education problems is beyond me. If 92% of your money came from two sources and 8% came from a third, how much attention would you give #3?

Voucher Reform

Next topic.

I promised some folks a couple months ago that I'd tackle (as best I can) the coucher issue.

I think I can make a reasonable plan. Now, this doesn't mean I could get it through the unions. I'm not naive.

OBJECTIVES

Vouchers available to, at a minimum, parent of children in "failing" schools.
Money spent per child average should be the same or perhaps boosted in some way.
Schools losing the student must have some incentive to agree and/or approve.

Definitions

The definitions may change as I go and do more research.

Failing: A school fails if the students (not including special needs children) cannot meet a national standard on a standardized test.