Atlanta Falcons

Excuse me if some of the wording leaves you a bit confused. It's a repost from another site (700level.com)

The Atlanta Falcons feature a very effective running game. Their passing game is suspect, at best. When your leading receiver is your TE, you rarely stretch the field. It also indicates your QB can’t look downfield or doesn’t give deep routes time to develop. However, they boast one of the strongest running games in the NFL, great punt return work, and a solid front seven on defense.

On first downs, the Falcons started the season with a more run focused attack and moved to one with more passes on first down. For every five first down pass plays during the first part of the season, the Falcons ran 11 times. Over 2:1. Toward the end of the season, they increased their pass ratio on first down (presumably to mix it up and keep defenses honest). In the last nine games, for every five first down pass plays the Falcons run 7 times. They balanced their first down playcalling, though still lean on their strength.

What’s been the effect? Their average gain per run remained pretty much the same. When running, they typically gain 0-3 yards on first down about 52-55% of the time. They gain 4-6 about 22% and 7+ about 23%. When passing, however, they’ve gone sharply south. In the first eight, they gained 0-3 (includes incomplete passes, sacks, and catches for loss) 39% of the time and gained 7+ yards a whopping 50% of the time. In the last nine games, they gain 0-3 yards 64% of the time and 7+ has dropped to 29%. Vick is throwing more incompletions on first down and either doesn’t stretch the field or in unsuccessful in stretching the field on first down.

Here’s the odd part. Even though they’re less successful in gaining yardage on first down, their third down completion % jumped during the second half of the season. They went from dismal rates (keep in mind, I count plays wiped from the books by certain penalties away from the play) averaging 27% to a very respectable rate in the second half of the season – 45%. The Falcons offense became more efficient as the year went on and is firing on almost all cylinders.

The running game has two components – the RBs and Vick. For the season and playoffs, the Falcons run 30% to the left, 40% to the middle and 30% to the right. They gain marginally more yards to the left than the right (36% of the total rushing yards gained running to the left and 27% to the right). Seems pretty balanced, no?

No.

Separating Vick’s designed runs and scrambles from the mix, the Falcons run an imbalanced running attack. The RBs run far more heavily to the middle (defined as middle or off guard runs) and more heavily to the right of the line (defined as tackle or end runs). 50% of the RB runs go up the gut, 32% (or so) go to the right and about 17% go to the left. The yardage gained is almost directly proportional, as well. They also almost never pass when Duckett is in the backfield. He doesn’t have the hands and probably isn’t as good at pass blocking.

Vick, on the other hand, runs to the left close to 50% of the time. Not surprising, considering he’s left handed and his eyes more easily see that side of the field. He runs the middle about 33% of the time and to the right approx 17% of the time. What does this mean? Well, a Buc fan friend of mine stated earlier this week the Bucs keep containment on the left side of the line and it greatly hampers Vick’s game. In addition to cutting lanes of escape, he contends if also has the psychological effect of a “trap.”

Considering the Eagles faced another strong running team (Packers) and were incredibly effective, I’ll wager we will see Walker at RDE every now and then to provide a wall to the left of Vick. Consider: Hollis Thomas made his return and Johnson now has the full DT rotation. He can spare Walker to the end and plug Thomas in the middle. I wouldn’t expect this the entire game, but I would expect it during pass plays. In fact, Douglas may get more reps since he may have more lower leg strength than Burgess to hold the tackle in position.

Duckett runs almost exclusively between the tackles and is not successful bouncing to the outside. He goes from six yards per carry up the guy to 3 yards per carry to the outside. Dunn runs up the middle with equal success to the outside, though he has about as many yards from middle runs as the outside runs combined. This team will try to dominate the inside of the line. So, Johnson will have to balance the need to wall off Vick to the left with keeping DTs fresh. Thankfully, the Eagles have very good depth at DL (unlike last year).

Regarding the shotgun formation. The Falcons use it regularly and run from it more frequently than you think. More often than not, it’s a run from Dunn (Duckett will never be in for shotgun). They do have the direct snap to Dunn in their playbook. The run from shotgun is very effective. From my memory, they gained at least five yards or more each time they ran from shotgun. I fully expect to see the formation and at least two runs from it, very likely including the direct snap to Dunn.

Punt Return

Much has been made of Rossum’s ability on punt return and for good reason. He rarely has “bad” days on return duty. Of course, his kick returns are pedestrian. I posted the overview from the last meeting in 2002 and, funny enough, almost nothing has changed:

Rossum is their primary return man. We remember him as the guy that could never break the long one for a TD. He’s been a very good punt returner (12 yards per return, with no long one to throw the average), but is a lackluster kick returner. He averages 22 yards per kick return, despite having a long one for a TD (91 yards).

This year, Rossum averages 12.4 yards per punt return and 21.6 yards per kick return. The more things change…

I count 11 punt returns of 20+ yards and three 50+ yard returns. There is some reason for optimism, though I really can’t gauge the amount. He’s far more successful in domes than in open air. In fact, his average punt return drops from 18 (dome) to 11 yards per return. Without the long run against the Chiefs for a TD (unfair to remove, truth be told), his average drops to seven yards per return. The TD run counts, though, because it shows he can take it the distance under the circumstance.

The net average for Eagles punt is a fairly steady 35-36 yards per punt, home and away. Their coverage units do about the same home as away, but both are good. The coverage team allows about 6 yards per return. When playing against tough defenses (punting more), the coverage team doesn’t slacken. BAL, PIT, and DAL (1st), the Eagles punted 16 times and gave up 5.4 yards per return. They’ve also faced some quality return men (DET- Drummond). The coverage unit should be up to the task and the bad weather should be in their favor if they maintain discipline.

If I can get to it, I’ll do some Altanta defense workups. Just not sure if I can get it squeezed in.